Not my turn

Warning: whatever you call a lower form of blog post than a bad-beat blog post, that's what this post is. These weren't even bad beats; they're just death hands. But there's an attempt at a lesson at the end if you feel like slogging through the crap.

There's an ESPN episode of one of the 2005 WSOP final tables (not the main event) where Morgan Machina began as the chipleader. Over and over, Morgan faces the short stacks and ends up on the wrong side of AK vs. pockets. His big chip lead dwindles. Eventually, when he's the short stack, he goes all-in, and as he stands up and looks down at the board, he pleads to nobody in particular, "come on... it's my turn."

I didn't feel much empathy for Morgan when I first saw the show, but today I do. This was a bad weekend, poker-wise, and it can be summed up by involvement in races against bad calls where my turn never came up.

First, the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker (WBCOOP). After the first break I'm doing OK with close to 6,000 chips (about twice the average stack) when I find myself with 88 on a rag flop against one opponent, a pushmonkey. And what do you know, pushmonkey pushes. I think he has two overcards, and I have him covered, so I know (a) I'm a 75% favorite, and (b) if I knock him out, I will stop being annoyed by his constant, skill-free pushing on the flop. So I call, and his KJo catches a K on the turn. Once I'm crippled, a few hands later my AT pairs an ace on the flop. Of course, the same pushmonkey pushes again, and I call only to see him complete his ridiculous flush with his any-two-s0000ted hole cards. But as Wes said, better to go out 1314th and earn nothing than to go out 200-something and earn nothing. At least I got to spend more time with the kids on Fathers Day.

Second: Fire up a PokerStars SNG. Third hand: 88. Flop a set. All-in against JJ, who's ready to pack things up and go home until he makes a flush on the river. Then I spend the next 45 minutes working my 170 in chips up to 1,180, and lose with 33 on another raggedy flop when a big stack (who of course called my 4x BB preflop raise with J8o, and then calls my all-in) catches an eight.

Third: maybe it's PokerStars out to get me. So move to Full Tilt and cash in the satellite token I won a few weeks ago on the $8,000 guarantee (since obviously the best thing after a losing streak is to dive right in again and keep playing in the very same mindset that got you started on the losing streak). For the next 52 hands I am dealt nothing better than A8 offsuit; I see exactly one flop... in the big blind with 32 offsuit against 6 limpers. Finally, on the 53rd hand, I get 99. I have 580 chips -- not one of the lost 920 put into the pot voluntarily -- and I push preflop because gosh, it would be nice to take those blinds and chip up to something like 700. Does it matter that my SF% is 1.9% up to this point? Does it matter that I opened under the gun? Does my raise get any f-ing respect at this table? Nope, small blind calls with ace-crap, and you know what happened on the river.

Fourth: Back to PokerStars for one last 2-table SNG before bed. Doing fairly well here with a middle stack two spots away from the bubble (6 players left and 4 pay). It's folded around to me in the small blind with 44. Big blind has me *barely* covered by about 200 chips. He doesn't know the first thing about me because I was just moved to the final table about 5 hands earlier. So I push. He quickly calls with that legendary monster starting hand, A3o. And here's where I start to feel like Morgan: come on, dealer, it's my turn to win a god damned race ONCE tonight. But you know how it is, the PokerStars server can't hear me because it's way up in Canada, and the ace on the flop sends me to bed.

Disclaimers: I did cash a couple times in some other SNGs, and as is always the case I don't seem to remember the races I won. Like I said at the start, this is a crappy whining I-lost-and-I'm-annoyed blog post.

So I was torturing my wife with each of these got-all-my-money-in-with-the-best-hand-but-that-fool-called-and-sucked-out-on-me stories. She suggested I move up in buyins to a point where people don't make stupid calls with A3o for over 90% of their stack. Those of you who read the 2+2 forums know the answer to this argument. If you suck at lower buyins, you're going to suck more at higher buyins, and no, you're not that special kind of player who can beat only players above a certain caliber.

Face it, Mike: you put yourself into vulnerable situations with easily defeatable hands. And to cite Wes again, looking at the actual matchup of hands is results-oriented thinking. Unless you're a brilliant Negreanu-level hand reader, at best your read on an opponent is going to be a fuzzy range of hands. Just as in the Birthday Paradox, all the hands that beat you within that range add up to a lot more than you expect. According to PokerStove, A3o vs. 44 is a 70% underdog. But if I knew he's the kind of dumbass who would call with A3o, then his actual range is probably 22+, A2s+, A2o+. And that range vs. 44 is actually favored 51% to 49%. Granted, he had no idea what I had; there was a chance I was bluffing. The moment he saw my 44 he probably regretted his decision. But I let him make the mistake by risking everything as an underdog to steal one big blind.

I promised a lesson at the end of all this. The most succinct summary would be just to read what Wes wrote on the subject. In my own words: pockets are just one pair. You'll lose often, much more than you expect, with just one pair. Don't go broke with one pair. If you identify another player as a dumbass, good for you -- but act on that conclusion by not getting into a situation where he can luck into hurting you. And then maybe you won't end up writing a blog post like this where you whine about losing a few coinflips in a row.