Humbled in Las Vegas

I started playing online poker about four months ago, and have logged around 300 tournaments since then. I'm net profitable (11% ROI, 30% ITM), but the nagging question remains: am I a donk? Mary asked me this question the other day -- phrased more positively and tactfully -- and here was my answer.

I'm not yet a good player, but I'm not a donkey, either. I often feel that I'm acting as a hit man for the stronger players at the table; I take tremendous risks (e.g., calling a short-stack's all-in with AJo) to knock out short stacks or at least keep them weak by stealing their blinds, while the big stacks wait for premium hands to further strengthen themselves. Of course they'll kill me, too, if they have the opportunity; there's no allegiance at the table. But eventually, if all goes well, we all cross the bubble, at which point I generally get immediately knocked out, winning second or third place for my trouble.

There are many exceptions, of course; sometimes my risks pay off big and I'm the big stack when we reach the money, and sometimes my heads-up play works well against a specific chipleader and I knock him off after a vicious uphill battle. And, of course, most of the time (70%) I just lose.

So it was with this mildly positive self-appraisal that I went to Las Vegas for one night this week. I entered two tournaments (Caesar's noon $80, and Monte Carlo's 9:00 a.m. $40). I got knocked out nearing the second break in the $80, and made it to the final two tables in the $40. I made it a point to take notes afterward and analyze my play while relaxing in the hotel room. I was disappointed to discover that in almost every key hand, I made serious mistakes, even obvious ones. Sometimes, of course, I drew out on the other player and was rewarded for my errors, but overall, my inexperience caught up with me quickly.

Examples:

• Early in $80, blinds 25/50, I have about $3,000 in chips. I'm on the button and raise my ATs to 3x BB. Blinds fold, MP limper (a solid player who hasn't yet shown down a hand) calls. Flop comes A4A rainbow. MP checks, I bet $1,000. MP thinks for about 5 seconds and moves all-in. I ask for a count, find out he has me covered, and I fold. At the time I figured he had ace with a better kicker. I now think this was a mistake and that he had a high pocket pair. At the time I didn't want to go out of the tournament out-kicked on an ace, which to me felt like a rookie mistake. But (a) it was unlikely that he had an ace given that there were three exposed to me, (b) he probably would have reraised me preflop with AK or AQ, so it's more likely he had high pockets, (c) even if my read was correct, there's still a chance that we'd chop if a high nonpairing card came on the turn or river, and finally (d) even if he did have me outkicked, I had a 6% chance of making a full house on the river. My $1,000 bet probably looked like a bluff -- wouldn't I try to slowplay trips? If that's how he perceived it, then I trapped him without even realizing it, and let him walk away with half my stack.
• A few minutes before the first break in the $80, blinds $50/100, I have $2,700. Dealt AKs on the button, folded to me, I raise to $300. SB calls, BB folds. Flop QT9. SB bets $600. I think for a bit and call. Turn Ace. I figure he has KQ, AQ, KT or AT, which should indicate that I need to be very, very careful about this hand, but for some unknown reason I go all-in. He thinks for a while out loud: "well, you don't have a straight, because if you did, you'd have put me all-in on the flop. You called my earlier bet, and the ace helped you, so you must have AQ. I can beat two pair. I call." (Excellent analysis, by the way; I felt terribly, terribly outclassed at this point, and I knew I was dead because he was afraid of a straight but not afraid of two pair, so he must have flopped a set). Sure enough, he turns up pocket 9s and is ecstatic to see my crappy Big Slick. His joy turns to vicious frothing rage when the river brings a Jack, completing my gutshot straight (one of only six outs). I double up and he's screaming at anyone who would listen until the end of the 15-minute break.
• My death hand in the $80: Blinds are $200/$400, and I'm down to about $1,800 and waiting for any hand to make a move. Late position, K9s, I push. Big blind calls, MP moves all-in, BB thinks and calls. MP has AJs, BB has KQo. Flop brings a 9, which has me excited, and it holds up... until I realize that BB caught a runner-runner-runner-runner heart flush with her Queen, and I'm out.
• In the $40, I made exactly one voluntary move during the game. Blinds were $100/$200. With about $4,000 in chips, I preflop raise pocket 7s in middle position, button calls. Flop KQ4 rainbow. Check, check. Turn T. I check. Button bets $600. I check-raise, moving all-in. She thinks a good 20 seconds and folds, then says to her tablemates that "they wouldn't hold up with those overcards." I did think she had either an ace or low pockets (if I had to guess, 8s, and her post-hand comments confirms this was probably right).
• My death hand in the $40: after being nearly blinded away, I push AKo with about $1,800 in chips. Two callers: pocket jacks and AQ. Flop brings a jack and I'm out.

There were other hands, most of which were preflop raises followed by credible flops followed by big bets that took down the pot. But the more I analyze the key hands, the more errors I find in them. (I'm excluding the death hands; I think they were reasonable choices given that my M was so low.) Granted, this is an extremely small sample size compared to the nearly 15,000 online hands I've played, so it's tempting to chalk the poor results up to bad luck. But on the other hand, I haven't thought as much about any of my online hands; for all I know, I'm making gross errors like these all the time, but not enough to cost me more than my buyins.

Other observations:

• When recalling a hand, I don't easily remember my position. I need to deduce it from the order of the bets and the assumption (for example) that I'd never play ATs early in a tournament except on the button. This proves that position isn't important enough in my mind. I need to pay more attention to position, so that when I recount the story to myself in my mind, it starts out "I'm in the cutoff...." rather than "I look down at my cards and see KQ of diamonds..."
• I make an effort to watch other players, but at this point it means almost nothing to me. I did see one shaky-hands tell from a guy who turned over queens, and an excited grab at chips by the button, which I judged a genuine gesture that caused me to fold my AJo preflop (and he did indeed go all-in). But most of the time, I just see people looking at their cards and thinking about what to do. Maybe that's all there is to it.
• Calculating pot odds is not very hard, but you have to pay attention to every round of betting, because unlike online play, there isn't a figure hovering magically above the pot at all times.
• I'm amazed how often people talk about their hands afterward. The more interesting the hand appeared to be, the more they talk about it. This is great!

All in all, it was a learning experience. I feel more like a donkey than I did a few days ago. But I care enough about my play to do post-game analysis, I'm finding all sorts of leaks, and I'm willing to change my strategy based on what I've learned. If I keep this up, I know I'll improve enough to someday be a threat.

Updated 05/12/2006: I was misusing the term "3-bet," which means raising someone who raised someone else, not betting 3x the big blind.